French election: Odds and poll numbers improve in favor of Le Pen

Tensions and anxiety are on the rise in the Franco-German bond market where the yield gap between the two has hit 81 basis points, which is the highest level since European debt crisis of 2011/12. The latest poll numbers show that the National Front leader Marine Le Pen is set to win the first round of French Presidency with a much higher margin than previously estimated. She is set to get 27 percent of the votes, whereas her closest rivals, both Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon are expected to receive 20 percent of the votes. All the polls released so far, predict that Madame Le Pen is set to lose big in the second round. However, we and surely many around the world are remaining cautious, especially after what happened in 2016 in the UK and in the US, where all polls were proved to be wrong.

The betting market is also predicting that it is going to be tough for Ms. Le Pen’s rivals to win Presidency. According to latest numbers, below are the odds for top three candidates,

• The market is pricing the chance of winning for Emmanuel Macron: 38.1 percent, down from 58 percent a week ago.
• Market is pricing the chance of winning for Marine le Pen: 35 percent
• The market is pricing the chance of winning for Francois Fillon: 29 percent, up from 18 percent a week ago.