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Fundamental Evaluation Series: 2-year yield spread vs. GBP/USD

The chart above shows, how the relationship between GBP/USD and 2-year yield spread (U.S. - UK) has unfolded since 2012.

The chart clearly shows the close relationship between yield spread and the exchange rate. Since June 2014, the yield spread declined from 0.5 percent area to -2.15 percent area by November 2018, and GBP/USD declined from 1.71 to 1.25 area.

Since the second week of November, the yield spread has reversed course, and rose from -2.15 percent to -1.9 percent, which suggests there might be a reversal in the exchange rate going ahead, should the spread continue its reversal. The reversal has so far been significantly rapid. The pound is currently trading at 1.264 against the USD.

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