AUD/CAD chart - Trading View
Fundamental View:
- Aussie dampened following the release of the weak Australia building permits data.
- Australia Building Permits fell 15.5% in March, almost reversing the 19.1% rise seen in February. The markets were expecting a drop of 14%.
- Weaker-than-expected data will likely strengthen the dovish RBA expectations, raising probability of a rate cut on Tuesday
Technical Analysis:
- Price action has fallen below cloud and major moving averages
- Minor recovery attempts capped at 5-DMA and cloud base
- Volatility rising as evidenced by expanding Bollinger Bands on the daily charts
- RSI and MACD sharply lower, RSI below 50 showing strength of bearish momentum
- Strong support seen at trendline support at 0.94, break below eyes 61.8% Fib at 0.9360
- 5-DMA is immediate resistance at 0.9439, break above cloud negates bearish bias
Support levels - 0.94 (trendline), 0.9360 (61.8% Fib), 0.9316 (Mar 1 low)
Resistance levels - 0.9439 (5-DMA), 0.9478 (200-DMA), 0.95
Recommendation: Stay short on break below 0.94, SL: 0.9475, TP: 0.9360/ 0.9320
For details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
