AUDUSD short term outlook: The pair broke-out above its five-day consolidation range of 0.6900-0.6940, but it’s questionable how far it can run given trade tensions plus an RBA cut looming.
Technically, bulls, in the minor trend, break-out the tight range of 0.6898 – 0.6945 levels that lasted for a week or so, the upswings now seem to be exhausted as the failure swings are observed at the stiff resistance of 0.6962 level (refer daily chart).
However, it is wise to snap deceptive rallies at that juncture to build short hedges by shorting futures of mid-month tenors ahead of RBA monetary policy that is scheduled for this week, as the AUD in the broader perspective still appears to be vulnerable.
On monthly plotting, bearish engulfing patterns at 0.7760 and 0.7042 levels nudge prices way below EMAs, consequently, the major downtrend drags further 4-months lows on breach below the double top neckline at 0.7359 level. RSI and stochastic curves indicate intensified selling momentum, while bearish EMA and MACD crossovers signal downtrend to prolong further.
On the flip side, as both the momentum and trend oscillators on daily term indicate strength for further rallies, intraday or short-term traders can participate in the prevailing rallies of this pair by buying one-touch calls using upper strikes at 0.6962 levels.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD is flashing at 89 levels, while the hourly USD spot index was at -116 (bearish) while articulating (at 06:39 GMT). These indices are conducive for our intraday trades as shown above.
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
