• AUD/USD dipped on Monday as uncertainty over the U.S.–Iran standoff kept markets in a holding pattern.
• Mixed signals around Iran negotiations persisted, with reports alternating between stalled and continuing peace discussions, keeping risk sentiment fragile.
• RBA board member Harper flagged concerns that persistent inflation could remain sticky, reinforcing a cautious policy stance.
• Australia’s 4.75% minimum wage increase is expected to add to domestic inflation pressures, potentially complicating the RBA’s disinflation path.
• The Q1 current account showed a A$27.1bn deficit, wider than the Reuters poll consensus of -A$23.2bn, highlighting ongoing external imbalances.
• RBA Governor Bullock and Deputy Governor Kent are scheduled to appear before a Senate Committee on Wednesday, where markets will look for any shift in tone on inflation and policy outlook.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.7175 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.7193(23.6%fib).
• Support is seen at 0.7090(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.7065(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.7160 with stop loss of 0.7220 and target price of 0.7090
