• AUD/USD eased on Friday as investors fretted over whether the fragile Middle East ceasefire would hold.
• The activation of air defence systems over Tehran added to uncertainty, pushing investors toward safer assets and weighing on higher-beta currencies like the Aussie.
• Market attention is increasingly shifting toward Australia’s Q1 CPI release on April 29. This data will be crucial in shaping expectations around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy stance, with a strong print likely to reinforce the case for a more hawkish policy outlook.
• The currency pair is now grinding lower into the weekend, and price action suggests a lack of strong nearby technical support
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.7208(23.6%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.7267 (Higher BB).
• Support is seen at 0.7097 (38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.7049(SMA 20)
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.7130 with stop loss of 0.7180, and target price of 0.7060
