Finland’s Stubb Says Russia Unlikely to Attack NATO

Finland President Alexander Stubb has played down concerns that Russia could launch an attack against a NATO member, arguing that Moscow would have little reason to challenge the world’s most powerful military alliance.

Speaking in an interview with Germany’s Bild newspaper published Saturday, Stubb questioned predictions that Russia could be ready to attack NATO by 2029. German officials have previously cited that timeline while European governments increasingly warn about Russian cyberattacks, sabotage and other hybrid operations.

“If anyone has a crystal ball like that – that’s great,” Stubb said, adding that he sees no evidence supporting such a forecast. He said he does not believe Russia would want to attack NATO or test the alliance’s collective defense commitments.

Finland joined NATO in 2023 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted Helsinki to abandon its long-standing military non-alignment policy. Stubb stressed that NATO must remain prepared for every scenario, but said Russia currently lacks the capacity for a direct war with the alliance.

According to Stubb, NATO’s advantages in conventional forces, missile capabilities and nuclear weapons provide a powerful deterrent. He said intelligence available to Finland also supports his assessment that Moscow is unlikely to risk a confrontation.

Stubb argued that Russia is instead attempting to create fear across Europe through information warfare. He also pointed to Moscow’s battlefield losses in Ukraine, estimating that Russia is losing roughly 30,000 to 35,000 troops per month while recruiting about 27,000.

With those losses, Stubb said he cannot see Russia suddenly assembling sufficient forces to sustain wars on two fronts.

The Finnish president also described Ukraine as being in its strongest position since the war began and urged European governments, including Germany and Finland, to maintain their support for Kyiv.

Stubb called Ukraine a critical security buffer for Europe against Russia, warning that a Ukrainian defeat would carry wider consequences for European and NATO security.

“We must understand – you in Germany and we in Finland – that Ukraine is the best security guarantee we have against Russia,” he said.