- Upbeat Australia NAB business confidence data and hawkish comments from NAB's Chief Economist buoy the Aussie.
- NAB Business confidence rose by 2 points to stand at +7. The index of business conditions stayed at +14 in September, almost triple its long-run average of +5.
- AUD/USD is trading up 0.47% on the day, currently at 0.7789, bias still bearish.
- Upside in the pair capped shy of 0.78 handle, further gains only on break above.
- We see stiff resistance at 0.78 handle which is converged 5-DMA and cloud base.
- Technical studies support downside, RSI and Stochs are biased lower. MACD supports downtrend and ADX is above 25 and rising with bearish DMI dominance.
- Next bear target lies at 200-DMA at 0.7670, and we see bearish invalidation only above 20-EMA at 0.7864.
Support levels - 0.7726 (50% Fib retrace of 0.7328 to 0.8125 rally), 0.77, 0.7670 (200-DMA)
Resistance levels - 0.7793 (5-DMA), 0.7801 (cloud base), 0.7864 (20-EMA), 0.7875 (Oct 4th high)
Call update: Our previous call (https://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-AUD-USD-breaks-below-daily-cloud-bias-lower-200-DMA-at-07664-in-sight-stay-short-938835) has hit TP1.
Recommendation: Bias lower, stay short for further downside.
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