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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2042.64
Kijun-Sen- $2046.24
Gold pared most of its gains after stellar US jobs data. The US economy added 353000 jobs in Jan, compared to a forecast of 180000. Unemployment came in line with expectations of 3.70%. Wage inflation rose to 4.5% higher than the estimate of 4.1%. The chance of an early rate cut diminished after the US Non-farm payroll. The yellow metal hit a low of $2023 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2023.52.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits jumped to a two-month high of 224000 last week, below the estimate of 212000.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 82.5% from 52.3% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 103.50/102.75. The near-term resistance is 104.50/106.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2020, a break below targets of $2000/$1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2040 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2060/$2070/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2000 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2065/$2080.
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Silver-
Silver declined sharply due to the strong US dollar. It trades above 21 and 55- EMA and long-term MA (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart. The near-term resistance is around $22.75 and a break above confirms an intraday bullishness. A jump to $23/$23.35 is possible. It is immediate support at around $22.40. Any break below target $21.90/$21.50.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices tumble sharply despite the escalation of geo-political tension in the Middle East. the increase in production by major countries like the US, Canada, Guyana, and Venezuela.
Major resistance- $75/$78. Significant support- $70/$68.
Feb 5th, 2024, US ISM services PMI (1:30 pm GMT)
Feb 8th, 2024, US initial jobless claims (1:30 pm GMT)
