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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2019.77
Kijun-Sen- $2028.28
Gold jumped slightly after weak US retail sales. It came at -0.80% in Jan compared to a forecast of -0.20%. The yellow metal hit a high of $2008 yesterday and is currently trading around $2006.
The Empire State manufacturing index rose to -2.4 in Jan vs. the Forecast of -13.70, from -43.7 the previous month.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 89.5% from 81% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 104.50/103.80. The near-term resistance is 105/106.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1970, a break below targets of $1956/$1930. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2010 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2020/$2030/$2045/$2060/$2070/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $1990 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2040/$2065/$2080.
Silver-
Silver recovered sharply on board-based US dollar selling. Any weekly close above $23.25 confirms further bullishness, a jump to $23.60/$24 is possible. It trades above 21, 55- EMA, and 200 EMA in the 4-hour chart. The near-term support is around $22.75 and a break below confirms an intraday bearishness. A dip to $22.20/$21.90/$21.40/$20.68 is possible.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil is consolidating ahead of US PPI. Markets developments in the Middle East for further direction.
Major resistance- $78/$80. Significant support- $74/$72.
