Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close

Goldman Sachs reported Monday that the copper market is pricing in a 50% chance of a 10% U.S. tariff on the metal by the end of Q1 2025. The bank’s own estimate aligns with this, assigning a 50% probability of such tariffs being implemented by year-end.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3% to $9,167 per metric ton at 0706 GMT, retreating from last week’s one-month high. The market remains cautious as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to deliver his inauguration speech, with traders watching for signs of immediate policy changes. Trump has proposed tariffs of up to 10% on global imports, 60% on Chinese goods, and 25% on Canadian and Mexican products.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted oil market concerns, estimating a 40% chance of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, compared to their subjective 15% probability of such a tariff by year-end. Brent crude futures were trading around $80.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was steady at $77.36.

The bank assigned a low 10% probability to a 10% tariff on gold, citing its status as a financial asset, which likely shields it from broad-based tariffs. Spot gold prices rose 0.3% to $2,708.77 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures held at $2,749.70.

COMEX gold stocks surged by one-third in six weeks as market players sought deliveries to hedge against potential tariffs.

This market analysis underscores how proposed U.S. tariffs could disrupt global commodities, fueling price volatility and strategic shifts among traders.