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Strong August data in the Czech Republic are likely insufficient to prevent a slowdown in Q3’16 GDP growth.
A strong batch of August data likely will be insufficient to prevent a deceleration in Q3’16 GDP growth, with our tracker now pointing to a 2.5% QoQ SAAR pace of expansion, from 3.7% in the previous quarter.
The Czech economy expanded 0.9 pct on quarter in Q2’2016, following a 0.4 pct growth in the previous period and in line with preliminary estimates, final data showed.
Looking from the GDP expenditures perspective, trade reflected the rebound in IP, with the Czech Republic posting its highest surplus on record in August. Taking an average of the July and August balances, however, the surplus is somewhat below the trend of previous months and suggests a smaller surplus for the quarter as a whole.
Czech consumer prices increased by 0.5 pct YoY in September of 2016, slowing from a 0.6 pct rise in the previous month, missing market consensus. The CPI in the Czech Republic decreased 0.20 pct in September of 2016 over the previous month.
While, the CNB attempted to tame market speculation of a break in the EURCZK floor by shifting its hard commitment by one-quarter to end-Q1 2017, but they have also indicated that the risk of delaying the exit from mid-2017 is now minimal.
This increase in confidence drives our bullish view. We remain short EURCZK forwards and recommend selling on rallies.
We remain short 27-November-2017 EURCZK forwards.
Thus, we recommend adding EURCZK shorts when EURCZK 12m forwards approach 26.85.
