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Despite DXY (US dollar index) rebounds today from the yesterday's lows of 100.26 levels to the current 100.61 levels, the index appears to be edgy after FED’s minutes, dropping towards 100 mark, but strong support at 100.15 levels on forward guidance and Trump’s regime.
The policy mix extends USD cycle. Stronger growth, excitement about the potential effects of tax cuts and expectations of faster monetary tightening will take the dollar higher in H1’17, but like Icarus, it’s in danger of flying too close to the sun.
It can rise while Europe is beset by political uncertainty and while the consensus is that President Trump will deliver faster growth but only slightly higher inflation, but if political concerns ease in Europe, the euro will likely bounce.
If the dollar does some of the Fed’s work for it, if stronger demand boosts the US trade deficit and if real yields are eroded by a further pick-up in inflation expectations, then the dollar rally should grind to a halt. It is not so much a case of Mr Trump having feet of clay, as the dollar having wings of wax.
Where and when to fade USD strength. We expect EURUSD to trough around parity, before the French elections, unless Front National candidate Marine le Pen wins the presidency (in which case the low would be lower and later). USDJPY has further to run as the BoJ anchors nominal yields, but above 120, momentum should slow. We expect yield-seeking investors to return to EM currencies from Q2 onwards.
Elevated USD-correlations open up opportunities to buy cross-yen vs. USD-vol spreads (e.g. BRLJPY – USDBRL) as bullish yen vol proxies. EURJPY 3M3M forward vols (FVAs) are extremely rich, consider selling against 3M3M FVAs in EURUSD and USDJPY to earn hedged positive vol carry.
