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FxWirePro: EUR/GBP stagnant IVs and positive RR signal euro gains - bull spreads for risk averse and doubling spreads for aggressive bulls

The implied volatility of ATM contracts for 1M-3M expiries of this the pair is flashing at around 12%.

Delta risk reversals creeping up gradually with positive numbers to signify the hedging positions are well equipped for upside risks over the period of time. While current IVs of ATM contracts are at higher levels but likely to perceive hover around 12% in long run.

In the FX option market, prices are quoted for standard moneyness levels for different time to expiry periods. These standard moneyness levels are At the money level, 25 delta out of the money level and 25 delta in the money level (75 delta) .

Since out of the money levels are liquid moneyness levels in the options market, market quotes these levels as 25 delta call and 25 delta put . If a trader has the right model, he can build the whole volatility smile for any time to expiry by using the three points in the volatility surface.

Hence, comparing this difference with implied volatility, OTC market sentiments and in options premiums we think the hedging costs for upside risks would be economical as result of deploying ATM instruments.

Now if you think speculation in potential uptrend in short terms is not possible as delta risk reversal suggested calls have been overpriced then let's look at an example and a few specific scenarios with alternatives in order to get benefitted from upswings.

Hedging Frameworks:

At this point of time, if you expect that EURGBP will mildly spike up over the next fortnight or so, spot FX is currently at 0.7812. And if you think calls are priced in expensive, then buy 1M (1%) Out of the money -0.37 delta put option. Simultaneously, short 1W (-1%) in the money put with positive theta, So thereby our breakeven would be at 0.7568.

Please be noted in this instance that the put we bought is out of the money and the put we sold is in the money with an anticipation of EURGBP could rise or remain unchanged, and there onwards any abrupt fall would be taken care by longs in OTM put and your active longs in spot FX would be protected.

Maximum profit: The initial credit received for this trade, less commission costs.
The maximum risk is the difference between the two strike prices, minus the credit you received.

Doubling leverage spread:

We see no divergence in spot FX with risk reversals, relying on the OTC hedging set up, aggressive bulls can prefer "Call Doubling Spread" that consists of buying a call of EURGBP at the money strike and buying another call at a higher strike price within same expiry.

Spread ratio: (1:1)
Call Double Construction: Initiate long in 1M at the money +0.51 delta call, initiate another long in 1M (1%) out of the money +0.39 delta call for net debit.

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