• EUR/USD edged higher but remained capped below the post-U.S. payrolls high of 1.1472 as investors were reluctant to extend gains despite the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report.
•The softer payrolls data prompted a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate expectations, but the move failed to generate sustained upside momentum for the single currency. The latest advance has also lacked support from eurozone-U.S. interest rate spreads, which have shown little meaningful compression.
•Meanwhile, comments from policymakers at the ECB's Sintra forum suggested a growing consensus in favour of keeping interest rates on hold, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may pause its tightening cycle.
•Recent downside inflation surprises across the euro area have also reduced the likelihood of additional ECB rate hikes, limiting the euro's upside potential.
•Overall, the macroeconomic backdrop remains a modest headwind for the euro, with markets continuing to favour a cautious approach despite the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar..
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.1472( SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.1497(38.2%fib).
• Strong support is seen at 1.1423(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.3374(July2nd low).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.1470 , with stop loss of 1.1500 and target price of 1.1400


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