FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.05826

 Kijun-Sen- 1.05795

EURUSD declined more than 100 pips after positive US inflation data. It hit a low of 1.05256 and is currently trading around 1.05554.

The US CPI rose 0.40% m/m in Sep 2023 above the estimate of 0.30% and 3.7% a year ago. Core CPI rose 0.30% m/m in Aug and 4.1% YoY. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits remains unchanged at 209000 during the week ending on Oct 7th, 2023.

Major economic data for the day

Oct 11th, 2023, prelim UoM Consumer sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 90.30% from 79.90% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback after positive US CPI data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -37.9% from -75%.

The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any break above 1.0660 confirms further bullishness. A jump to 1.0700/1.07368  is possible. The near-term support is around 1.0520, and any breach below targets 1.04800/1.0440. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Neutral

  Directional movement index – Neutral

It is good to buy on dips around 1.04800 with SL around 1.04400 for a TP of 1.0700.