Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
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The US dollar index pared most of its gains ahead of US Nonfarm payroll data. Markets expect moderate growth in jobs to 178k in Jan, from 216k in Dec. Unemployment to inch higher to 3.8% from 3.7%.
US ISM manufacturing rose to 49.10 in Jan, above the forecast of 47.20. The price paid index jumped to 52.90 from 45.20.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 63% from 50.90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback after upbeat US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -32.5% from -53%.
Major resistance- 103.75/105
Major support- 102.70/101.60.
EURUSD-
EURUSD jumped sharply after the strong Eurozone CPI. It came 2.9% yoy in Jan vs. Forecast of 2.7% yoy. Core CPI slowed down from 3.3% to 3.3% yoy, above the estimate of 3.2%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits jumped to a two-month high of 224000 last week, below the estimate of 212000.
Major resistance-1.08850,1.1000
Major support- 1.0800,1.07200
Yen-
The yen trades flat ahead of the US Nonfarm payroll. Any break below 145.80 confirms further bearishness.
Major Resistance- 147,148.50
Major support- 145.80,145
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar gained momentum despite weak crude oil prices. Canada's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 48.30 in Jan from 45.4 the previous month.
Resistance- 1.3400,1.3450
Major support- 1.3350,1.3300
Feb 2nd 2024, US NFP (1:30 pm GMT)
