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US dollar Index-
The US dollar index recovered slightly after a massive sell-off. It hit a high of 104.42 and is currently trading at around 104.33.
Retail sales, housing starts, and building permits were better than expected. Markets eye US PCE, GDP, and Durable goods orders this week for further movement.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 20000 last week to 243000 vs. an Estimated 229000.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Sep increased to 91.70% from 91.90% a week ago.
Major resistance- 105/106.20
Major support- 103.60/103
EURUSD-
EURUSD pared some of its gains after the ECB monetary policy. It hit a low of 1.08756 and is currently trading around 1.08832.
ECB kept its interest rates on hold at 3.75% as expected. Core inflation remains elevated at 2.9%, above the ECB forecast preventing the ECB from rate cut. Markets forecast two 25 bpbs rate cuts this year.
Major resistance-1.0950,1.100
Major support- 1.0860,1.0750
Yen-
The yen was one of the best performers in the past two weeks ahead of BOJ monetary policy next week. Any close below 155.35 confirms further bearishness.
Major Resistance- 158,160
Major support- 155,154
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar declined after dismal Canadian retail sales. Market eyes the BOC monetary policy meeting for further direction. Any break above 1.3750 confirms further bullishness.
Resistance- 1.3765, 1.3800
Major support- 1.3660,1.3600
