FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
 
Tenken-Sen- $1809.09
 
Kijun-Sen- $1901.39
 
Gold price consolidating in a narrow range between $1732.32 and $1752.48 for the past three days despite robust US NFP data. US  economy has added 372K jobs in June beating the forecast 260K. The upbeat jobs data has cooled off recession worries and increased the chance of aggressive rate hikes. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 75 bpbs rate hike in Jul rose to 93% from 86.2% a week ago. The surge in the US dollar on recession fears puts pressure on the yellow metal. US dollar index regained above 107 level. Any violation above the recent high of 107.78 confirms a bullish continuation.

 The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 4000 to 235000 previous week compared to an estimate of 230000. US ISM services declined to two year low at 55.3 in June vs 55.9. the previous month. It hits a low of $1732.32 and is currently trading around $1742.30.

US primary economic data this week  

CPI (Wed), retail sales (Fri), Industrial production.

Factors to watch for gold price action-
 
Global stock market- mixed (neutral for gold)
 
US dollar index – Bullish (negative for gold)
 
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
 
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1730, a breach below targets $1700/$1650—significant reversal only below $1700. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1760,  breach above will take it to the next level of $1780/$1800.
 
It is good to sell on rallies around $1750-52 with SL around $1770 for TP of $1700.