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At the end of March, Thomson Reuters GFMS and Metals Focus published separate 2017 surveys on the outlook for gold in 2017. In their base case scenario, they forecast gold prices to edge higher this year on an annual average basis even in the face of a persistent surplus of physical metal, as safe-haven flows and a hedge against risk aversion drive investors to bullion. Compared with last year’s average of $1,248/oz, GFMS forecast gold to average $1,259/oz this year, while Metals Focus predicts an average of $1,285/oz.
We summarize their main findings. GFMS Gold Survey 2017 Thomson Reuters released the GFMS Gold Survey 2017, the 50th in the series of annual Surveys, looking at the shifts and developments in the global gold markets, their fundamentals, and their drivers, over the year and setting the scene for the future.
Total physical demand fell 18% to 3,559 tonnes in 2016, largely due to sharply lower jewelry fabrication.
Jewelry fabrication slumped 21% last year to an estimated 1,892 tonnes, the lowest level seen since 2009. Indian jewelry fabrication fell 38%, due in part to the introduction of excise duty on jewelry manufacturing, destocking by retailers and the contraction of monetary supply. Chinese jewelry fabrication fell by 17% because of higher gold prices, weak consumer sentiment and a shift to lower-carat jewelry.
Total identifiable investment, which includes the physical bar and coin investment plus ETF movements, gained 52% in 2016 to reach 1,579 tonnes, or 64% in value terms to $61bn in 2016, the highest since 2012. A seven-year peak in ETF buying (a 34% increase to 2,056 tonnes) offsetting softer demand for coins and bars.
Central banks were net buyers of gold for a seventh year in 2016, though they bought the least since 2010. Net official sector buying dropped appreciably, to 257 tonnes, chiefly due to lower Chinese purchases. GFMS forecast 250 tonnes of buying this year, with Russia continuing to drive purchases and China re-starting reserve building after four months of no changes to its holdings.
Mine production just tipped into positive territory registering a 0.4%, or 14 tonne year-on-year increase to 3,222 tonnes. The rate of growth had been slowing for the past three years. In 2016, the US and Australia grew production but it fell in Mexico, Peru, and Mongolia. SA remained in eighth place with a one-tonne drop to 150 tonnes.
