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PBoC on FX policy: Chinese central bank has made dual modifications to its policy over the last year that is functioning significantly, primarily, the daily reference rate has become more market based. Secondarily, the CNY is now explicitly managed against a basket of currencies rather than just the USD.
Having policy management in place, China's central bank lets the CNY spot rate rise or fall a maximum of 2% against the dollar, relative to the official fixing rate.
The PBoC sets the USDCNY reference rate at 6.5693, against Tuesday's fixing of 6.5468. The fixing was the weakest for the yuan since 2011.
As PBoC currently seems to be interested in USD/CNY stability, we believe that today’s trade data will have a limited impact on USD/CNY exchange rate in the short term, but otherwise this data is something NZD and AUD are exposed to.
Hence, in the meantime, following USD softness, CNY has weakened somewhat against the basket of currencies, so we continue to recommended to buy 3M USD/CNY forwards of march expiries.
