China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Detroit’s high property taxes are driving a housing affordability crisis – how can city leaders bring down costs? 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
Gold Cracks Below $4,500 as Safe-Haven Shine Fades; Technical Breakdown Signals Sell-on-Rallies Toward $4,000 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Cuba needs a long-term solution to its energy crisis 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
AI-Driven Memory Chip Prices May Be Skewing U.S. Inflation Data, Fed Minutes Suggest 
 on Trump’s surprising outcome - EconoTimes)
The U-turn happened with staggering speed. Even during the election night some of Donald Trump’s central demands disappeared from his homepage.
CADJPY vol: CAD is the G10 counterpart of MXN, and it is no surprise that two out of three entries in this shortlist contain CAD-crosses.
CADJPY is by far the most expensive gamma in G10 (see above chart for 1m realized vols running 6-7 % pts. under 1m ATMs), and the poster-child of a high-beta vol ripe for a 2-3 pts. lower repricing should fears of a Trump presidency prove unfounded.
CAD is only 1 sigma cheap and our EM strategists that MXN and TWD are near fair value on their models. Only JPY is an exception where both the premium appears high in spot and vol.
Given this setup and the binary nature of the outcome on Tuesday, the FX market reaction around the event appear binary as well. As a result, we keep direct exposure to this event light. Coming into this week, we were positioned for -
a) Long oil currencies (NOK vs. EUR, CAD vs. GBP) but short non-oil commodity currencies (NZD vs. EUR),
b) The central bank balance sheet constraints limiting additional easing (long CHFJPY, short EURCZK),
c) We uphold longs in USDKRW on CNY weakness.
d) More Brexit-related weakness and Fed hikes and estimates to attract shorts in GBPUSD during December and early 2017.
Longs in oil currencies would likely underperform if there is a Trump outcome as risk sentiment is likely to deteriorate in the initial reaction, as would long CHFJPY as the recent bond market sell-off and the related JPY underperformance retraces, but this would be partially offset by an outperformance in long EURNZD.
