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On weekly plotting:
Railroad pattern at 82.209 levels.
Shooting star at 81.018 and 82.220 levels.
On monthly terms:
Gravestone doji at 81.019 levels.
NZDJPY trend has been stuck in the range from last three months (83.805 on north and 80.155 on the south), thereby, 6-7 months of consolidation phase is now struggling at 61.8% Fibonacci retracements (i.e where we could trace out gravestone doji pattern).
Price swings stuck in the range, any attempts of upswings restrained below stiff resistance of 83.762 levels, current prices on weekly terms have gone below 7WMA, any break below support of 80.650 likely to drag more declines, else consolidation phase may resume.
On the contrary, if it holds support at 80.650, then the rallies would likely hit next strong resistance at 83.762 levels (refer monthly plotting), supportively the upswings have gone above EMAs & lingering at 12-1/2 month’s highs.
While both leading & lagging indicators do not substantiate this bullish stance, instead you see downward convergence on weekly terms.
RSI converges to the ongoing downswings as this leading oscillator trending below 59 levels and on monthly charts also signals weakness. Same has been the case with stochastic curves that indicates intensified selling momentum.
Selling momentum on the monthly term is not convincing by the stochastic oscillator, nor does it substantiate for consolidation phase as well.
MACD here signals bearish trend to prolong ahead in short-medium terms.
Hence, we recommend shorting rallies on hedging grounds, and decide to initiate shorts in futures contracts with near month tenor.
Alternatively, for intraday trading perspective, at spot reference: 81.031 it is advisable to buy boundary binaries with upper strikes at 81.5505 and lower strikes at 80.650.
The trading between these strikes likely to derive certain yields in this puzzling trend and more importantly these yields are exponential from spot FX.
For cash or nothing, these options would be exercised if the forward prices to remain between both strikes (i.e. 81.5505 > Fwd price > 80.650).
