We've been observing consistent price drop in this pair from last Friday when it has formed a shooting star candle pattern at 80.498 signifying more weakness towards downside, previous to which the puzzling trend in this pair was sideways and certainly not an uptrend.
With leading oscillating indicators to converge dipping prices we believe retest of support at 79.450 is most likely event.
As a result, we've already advocated combinations in lieu of spreads, for now we like to short 1 lot of OTM call with positive theta + 2 lots of ATM -0.50 delta put longs are suggested so as to replicate the swing trading but the position derives exponential returns.
What is good sign for option writers is that prices remained sideways or slightly swinging southwards while the pair is likely to perceive IV closer to 13% which is on higher side. Theta for deep OTM (Out Of The Money) options decrease faster in the first 15 days and almost nothing is left for the last 10 days.
Any abrupt upswings can be utilized by shorting OTM calls so as to present leveraging effects in profitability.
What we could now foresee is that the time for those active long positions in ATM puts with longer tenors, on the flip side OTM short calls would enhance profitability even though some abrupt minor rallies are expected.
For now instead of shorting in the money contracts in the strategy prefer OTM instruments as the pair has already dropped a bit.
If you add ITM options on short side then they may be at risk of exercise, but those who've already deployed ITM shorts in the recent past, you have nothing worry about this now as they've expired worthless.


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