• NZD/USD fell on Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened despite data showing the U.S. economy remained fragile ahead of Friday’s key jobs report.
• Thursday’s data showed the U.S. labour market in a “no hire, no fire” mode, with November job openings dropping more than expected and hiring slowing.
•However, services sector activity unexpectedly picked up in December, suggesting the economy ended 2025 on a solid footing.
• Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled its easing cycle likely ended last year after 225 bps of cuts but dismissed expectations of near-term rate hikes..
• Governor Anna Breman said in December that interest rates are likely to stay at current levels for the foreseeable future.
•Currently, markets are pricing in less than a 50% chance of a rate increase before September, with an October move increasingly favored.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5793(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5818(50%fib).
• Support is seen at 0.5742(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5702 (38.2%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5760, with stop loss of 0.5800 and target price of 0.5700
