FxWirePro: NZD/USD softens amid energy price pressure renewal

• NZD/USD  edged lower on Thursday  as high energy prices  and a hawkish tilt at the U.S. Federal Reserve pressured kiwi dollar.

• A key driver behind the move has been the sharp rise in oil prices, with WTI crude climbing above $108 per barrel. This surge is linked to escalating fears of a prolonged conflict involving Iran, after comments from Donald Trump suggested the possibility of a “months-long” blockade.

• Higher energy prices tend to fuel global inflation concerns, which in turn support the U.S. dollar by reinforcing expectations that interest rates may stay elevated for longer.

• On the monetary policy front, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its current policy stance, leaving the federal funds rate unchanged. While the committee retained a general easing bias, the decision saw increased dissent among members.

• Meanwhile, RBNZ rate expectations have shifted notably. Futures markets now indicate that the probability of a rate hike in May has eased to around 50%, reflecting a more cautious outlook among investors.

•  Immediate resistance is located at 0.5846(50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5890(April 29th high).

•Support is seen at 0.5746(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5725(Lower BB).

 Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5830 with stop loss of 0.5890  and target price of 0.5750