We could foresee lot of speculations happening around USDJPY currency cross.
The US was able to produce upbeat NFP numbers at 211K vs forecasts at 201K and no change in unemployment scenes.
But despite good set of preliminary GDP Q/Q numbers in U.S. and trade deficit has been contracted from previous 59.1B to 58.4B, dollar has been adversely reacting to these fundamental indicators.
This lackluster move is confirmed by the sluggish consumer confidence numbers (reported at 90.4 versus previous 99.1).
On the flip side, Japan reported healthy retail sales numbers at 1.8% versus previous -0.1%.
While industrial production is also improving from 1.1% to 1.4%.
Delta risk reversals of USDJPY for next 1-3month seem to signal the downward direction for this pair, dollar rebounds as per delta risk reversal computation coupled with various recent booming economic numbers of U.S and certainty on Fed's event on rate hike decision.
We don't see any reasons to short dollar but short term corrections up to 121.991 (23.6% fibo levels).
So, short ITM put with 3D expiry since implied volatility is inching lower which is good for option writers and buy 2 lots of ATM and OTM put with 10D expiries.
It is also understood that ATM contacts of USDJPY are gradually reducing implied volatilities (second least IVs which is good for option holders) ahead of much awaited fed's meet which is underway that could prop up market speculations again (see current 1w & 1m contracts).
We've combined positions with buying at the money and out of the money puts and, simultaneously, shorting an in the money put as well, these in the money puts are always at risk of exercise, but you have two advantages.
First, assignment can be covered by the long puts; second, time decay and implied volatility work in your favor on the short puts. This points out the importance of entering the position when implied volatility is higher than average.


FxWirePro: USD/CAD downside pressure builds, key support level in focus
FxWirePro: USD/JPY neutral in the near-term, scope for downward resumption
FxWirePro: USD/CAD extends drop, faces 50%fib support
FxWirePro: NZD/USD sustains gains as uptrend remains strong
FxWirePro- Major Crypto levels and bias summary
FxWirePro: EUR/AUD set To for bigger drop, but close below key fibo needed
FxWirePro: EUR/AUD poised for further downside after key fibo break
FxWirePro: AUD/USD consolidates gains ,remains on positive footing
Yen Storm Hits EURJPY: Crashes Below 181 – Sell the Bounce Intraday! Target 179.50 with Tight Stop Above 181.45
FxWirePro: USD/ CNY gains some upside momentum but still bearish
FxWirePro: USD/JPY dips below lower range, bearish bias increases
FxWirePro- Major US Indices
FxWirePro: GBP/AUD gains some upside momentum, but bearish outlook remains
NZDJPY Eyes Higher Ground: Buy the Dips as Bulls Defend 88.70 Support
FxWirePro- Major Pair levels and bias summary
FxWirePro: EUR/NZD neutral in the near-term, scope for downward resumption
FxWirePro: GBP/NZD edges higher but bearish outlook persists




