FxWirePro: USD/INR outlook – further upside likely

Dollar has made a key base against INR and broken higher from there suggesting further rise ahead. Over the past months, and overall in the year INR has performed very well against Dollar and has remained a darling among emerging market currencies.

• However, with European Central Bank hinting to ease rates further and boost its asset purchase program probably in December, focus has shifted to European equities, which look by far attractive and may lead to outflow from India to Europe.
   
• Moreover US Federal Reserve hinted that December hike possibility is still on the table, referring directly as next meeting. Which makes emerging market currencies little out of favor, which includes Rupee too.
   
• Many analysts and economists have pointed out that though India may be heading in right direction, pace of reforms have been too slow.

Technically speaking, USD/INR has made a key base around 64.6 area and has risen finally from there. Further upside seems likely.

Trade idea -

• Buy USD/INR with initial target around 66 and stop loss around 64.94. USD/INR is currently trading at 65.3. Key resistance is at 65.5.