FxWirePro: USD/JPY holds 200-DMA support, weakness only on break below

• USD/JPY extremely range bound in holiday-thinned trade today after spinning top formation seen on daily charts on Thursday.
   
• Risk-off dominates amid tensions in the Korean peninsula and over US bombing Afghanistan continue to spook markets. Yen likely to remain supported. 
   
• The major finds strong support at 108.57 (converged 200-DMA and channel base).
   
• We see resumption of weakness on break below, test of 107.86 (61.8% Fib retrace of 101.19 to 118.662 rally) likely.
   
• RSI at oversold levels, so some caution advised. We see minor retracement if the pair manages a close above 5-DMA at 109.55.
   
• Break above 5-DMA could see minor retracements upto 20-DMA at 110.78.
   
• Weekly charts support downside in the pair. We have see a break below weekly 200-SMA which supports downside.

Support levels - 108.57 (converged 200-DMA and channel base), 107.86 (61.8% Fib), 107.77 (Nov 15, 2016 low)

Resistance levels - 109.55 (5-DMA), 110, 110.78 (20-DMA), 111.99 (38.2% Fib)

TIME  TREND INDEX  OB/OS INDEX    

1H          Neutral                Neutral       
4H          Slightly bullish     Neutral       
1D          Bearish               Oversold        
1W         Bearish               Neutral      

Recommendation: Watchout for break below 200-DMA to go short, target 108/ 107.85

FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly USD Spot Index was at -90.9419 (Bearish), while Hourly JPY Spot Index was at 83.8739 (Bullish) at 0430 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.