• USD/ZAR fell sharply on Wednesday as stronger South African inflation data lifted expectations for a rate hike next week, supporting the rand.
• Headline inflation accelerated to 4.0% YoY in April from 3.1% in March, marking the highest level since August 2024, driven largely by a sharp rise in fuel prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran...
• Separate data from Statistics South Africa showed retail sales increased 2.6% year-on-year in March, following a 1.6% rise in February.
• Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand often takes cues from global drivers, in addition to domestic economic data.
• Immediate resistance is located at 16.485 (50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 16.559(SMA 20).
• Strong support is seen at 16.314 (Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 16.172(38.2%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 16.480 with stop loss of 16.800 and target price of 16.100
