• USD/ZAR fell on Monday as the South African rand gained support from lower oil prices and growing optimism over a potential breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace talks.
• Oil prices hit two-week lows on Monday on optimism that the U.S. and Iran were moving closer towards a peace deal even though both countries remained at odds over key issues..
• On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington and Iran had largely negotiated a peace framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and LNG shipping route.
• Domestically focused investor attention will be pinned on the central bank's rate decision on Thursday.
• Key economic data due this week includes the composite leading business cycle indicator on Tuesday and producer inflation data on Thursday.
• Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand often takes cues from global drivers, in addition to domestic economic data.
• Immediate resistance is located at 16.437 (50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 16.537(Higher BB).
• Strong support is seen at 16.270 (Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 16.136(38.2%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 16.300 with stop loss of 16.500 and target price of 16.100
