• USD/ZAR edged higher on Tuesday as rand was weighed down by high oil prices as hopes for a deal to end the Iran conflict remained uncertain.
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal with Iran could take a few more days, dampening hopes for a quick end to the conflict after U.S. forces carried out what Washington described as defensive strikes in southern Iran.
• On the data front, South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator rose 2.4% month-on-month in March 2026, after a revised 0.6% increase in February.
• The country’s central bank is set to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 25 basis point rate hike.
• Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand is influenced by global factors as well as domestic economic data.
• Immediate resistance is located at 16.468 (50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 16.527(SMA 20).
• Strong support is seen at 16.247(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 16.131(38.2%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 16.480 with stop loss of 16.560 and target price of 16.400
