Galaxy Research’s Oct. 22 outlook treats Bitcoin’s June 2026 low as the end of its bear market and says technical and positioning data point to accumulation.
In an Oct. 22 research alert, Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, put Bitcoin at $81,391 at 3:51 p.m. ET (19:51 UTC). That was 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above its June 30 low. Galaxy calculated that Bitcoin would need to rise 53% to regain its previous record.
The firm said Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks through Oct. 18, after spending 44 weeks below it. The weakest weekly close around the June low was 4.7% below the 200-week average, Galaxy said.
Galaxy also pointed to slower movement of older coins. Coins untouched for at least five years moved at an average rate of 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024. Citing Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) futures data, the firm said asset managers’ net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57%, from 43,300 BTC during the week of the October 2025 high to 18,400 BTC by the report date.
Galaxy said it would reconsider its view if Bitcoin closed a week below $76,540, then the 50-week average, and failed to recover within a month. It also cited U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings falling below their July 13 trough of 1.22 million BTC as a factor that would change its assessment. The report named no scheduled date for either indicator.
Galaxy compared today’s focus on stablecoins and tokenization over Bitcoin with earlier periods in 2015–16 and 2018–19, when investor attention shifted toward blockchain technology. Galaxy said Bitcoin later rose 83 times and 20 times, respectively, from those cycle lows to subsequent highs. The firm’s disclosure says it and its affiliates may hold interests in assets discussed and could receive higher service fees if prices rise.
The accumulation label remains Galaxy’s market assessment. EconoTimes’ earlier coverage of Bitcoin’s MVRV percentile noted that the measure alone does not establish a market bottom or net accumulation.
