Global Geopolitical Series: Is MbS set to lose crown prince’s position?

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has denied the allegations that he was aware of the murder plot that resulted in the death of Washington Post reporter Jamal Khashoggi in a brutal fashion at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul on October 2nd. However, America’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) after careful evaluation of all the evidence including an audio recording of the murder concluded that it is highly likely that the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) was well aware of the murder plot, if not a direct complicit. If he was indeed involved, this is the worst action he has ever taken.

Background:

Mr. Khashoggi vanished on October 2nd after his visit to the Saudi consulate over divorce documents from his previous marriage, while his fiancé waited outside. According to her, he never came out. Security surveillance cameras also supported her claim. However, for two weeks Saudi Arabia tried to press that Jamal Khashoggi left the consulate after 20 minutes of entering but under intense international outcry and pressure from allies, Saudi Arabia finally claimed that the journalist was killed in a fist-fight after officials asked him to return to his home country to get all the necessary papers.

At the same time, Turkey outraged by the killing on its soil claimed to have an audio tape of the killing and CCTV footages that in reality, Khashoggi was brutally murdered and the Kingdom preplanned it, which contradicted the Saudi account of an accidental killing. Finally, Saudi Arabia accepted late last month that the killing was premeditated.

Turkey shared the audio tape of the killing with western NATO allies and called on Saudi Arabia to reveal those truly culprit. President Trump of the U.S. described the killing as brutal and vicious.

President Trump’s stance:

President Trump condemned the killing and even described the incident and worst plan with worst execution, and worst cover up but extended his support to the Kingdom as the country is one of the most vital allies of the United States, especially in the Middle East, “Representatives of Saudi Arabia say that Jamal Khashoggi was an “enemy of the state” and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, but my decision is in no way based on that – this is an unacceptable and horrible crime. King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman vigorously deny any knowledge of the planning or execution of the murder of Mr. Khashoggi. Our intelligence agencies continue to assess all information, but it could very well be that the Crown Prince had knowledge of this tragic event – maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!

That being said, we may never know all of the facts surrounding the murder of Mr. Jamal Khashoggi. In any case, our relationship is with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They have been a great ally in our very important fight against Iran. The United States intends to remain a steadfast partner of Saudi Arabia to ensure the interests of our country, Israel and all other partners in the region. It is our paramount goal to fully eliminate the threat of terrorism throughout the world!

I understand there are members of Congress who, for political or other reasons, would like to go in a different direction – and they are free to do so. I will consider whatever ideas are presented to me, but only if they are consistent with the absolute security and safety of America.”

Not over yet:

While President Trump extended his support to the Royal family, the trouble seems to be far from over. There have been outcry within the U.S. Congress to take stringent actions against the crown prince based on CIA conclusions including sanctions against him, as well as banning arms sales to Russia. After a CIA briefing on the incident last night, American Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been among the few members of the Congress to be allowed at the briefing, expressed his outrage over the incident. Mr. Graham said that Saudi Arabia is a great ally of the United States and the relationship is worth saving but not at all cost. He further added that any country that allies with the United States and holds joint military actions and exercises are expected to abide by some basic rules and this extrajudicial killing of the report violates that. He sharply criticized the crown prince saying that there is a zero chance that he wasn’t involved and stressed that the United States cannot do business as usual with people like him, who is nothing but crazy. He expressed dismay that with his actions he has thrown the relation with the United States at stake here.

Mr. Graham will now call on senators and congressman from both sides of the aisle to pass a bill that imposes sanctions on the crown prince to the max and cancel an arms deal with Saudi Arabia to the very least.

Since President Trump has taken the opposite view, Mr. Graham is likely to receive support from the Democrats, who unlikely to miss the opportunity to take foreign policy decision out of the hands of the President.

That leaves us with the question if the Crown prince’s days are numbered in his current position with opposition from U.S. lawmakers and dissents within his own Royal family.