Global Geopolitical Series: Watch out for Catalonia’s voting today

Polls are due to open across Catalonia in a closely watched regional election, which could either solve or worsen Spain’s worst political crisis in decades. The snap election pits parties who want Catalonia to be an independent republic against those who wish it to remain a semi-autonomous part of Spain. An aggregate of polls published earlier this week by El Pais suggests the pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) will come top, slightly ahead of Ciudadanos (Cs), which wants unity with Spain. Nevertheless, all indications suggest that it would be close, could even be a nail-biter. The pro-independence JxCat party of ousted Catalan President Carles Puigdemont was predicted to come third. That would mean no parliamentary majority in favor of independence and possibly lengthy negotiations to form a government.

On October 27th, Catalonia’s parliament lead by pro-independence separatist Carles Puigdemont declared independence, triggering the worst political crisis for the country in at least 40 years. The political trouble led Spain to trigger a rare provision in its constitution known as Article 155 that dissolved the regional parliament imposing direct rule on self-government state of Catalonia and led to today’s election. Prosecutors accused 13 Catalan separatist politicians of rebellion and sedition, including Mr. Puigdemont and four others who fled to Belgium.  To this date, many pro-independence leaders remain in the Spanish jail.