Global News reported that wildfire smoke was associated with an estimated average of about 4,000 deaths a year in Canada in 2021–25, nearly four times the 2003–12 average.
The outlet credited the estimate to the 2026 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report and put the increase at about 275%. Calculations using the rounded averages yield roughly 281%; the exact change cannot be determined without unrounded figures.
The Countdown’s public data explorer, last updated in October 2025, estimates 154,000 deaths worldwide from wildfire-derived fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in 2024, 36% above the 2003–12 average. That global total covers a different geography and period from Global News’ reported Canadian five-year average, so it does not validate the Canadian numbers. It is not a count from an individual fire season in Canada.
The indicator estimates mortality by matching satellite records of fires with atmospheric models of smoke pollution and population exposure. Its results describe effects across populations, rather than individually confirmed deaths. The indicator links changes in temperature and rainfall to greater wildfire risk; its fire-weather measure leaves out land-use changes, fire suppression and human ignition. It therefore does not capture every factor that can affect wildfire risk.
“More death associated with those periods,” said Ian Hamilton, chair in planetary health at the George Institute for Global Health at Imperial College London and a report co-author, in comments to Global News.
The 2026 report, released ahead of COP31, calls for climate change to be formally recognized as a global health emergency. It also urges decision-makers to put health at the center of climate policy and funding and coordinate mitigation and adaptation. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said climate change is “one of the greatest threats to health facing humanity.”
