An Aug. 5 analysis from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management found larger average House losses for the president’s party in midterms when gasoline prices rose, linking pump costs with election outcomes historically.
The firm reported an average loss of 32 House seats when prices rose between January of the year before an election and October of the election year. When prices fell over that period, the average loss was six seats. Morgan Stanley’s public analysis does not identify the elections or group sizes behind those averages.
POLITICO/E&E News separately found that the president’s party lost an average of 21 House seats compared with the previous election cycle across midterms since 1978. A chart accompanying its report puts average losses in rising-price cycles 25 seats above those in falling-price cycles. That is a 25-seat gap, while Morgan Stanley’s figures imply a 26-seat difference; the analyses do not explain the discrepancy.
Voters also reported that fuel costs could affect their choices. The Center Square reported that Noble Predictive Insights surveyed 2,585 registered voters from June 1-4 and found 66% said gas and fuel prices were likely to influence their November vote; 37% said this was very likely. The reported share was 81% among Democrats, 56% among true independents and 53% among Republicans. The survey captured stated expectations, not how respondents ultimately voted.
Household exposure varies. Brookings estimated that a $1-per-gallon increase would add about $70 a month in gasoline spending for a median-earning household with two drivers, equal to about 1% of its post-tax income. For more than 18 million households in the lowest income quintile, the added expense would equal an estimated 5% of post-tax income. Brookings said lower-income and high-mileage households bear greater costs, and that global crude prices constrain how quickly pump prices can fall.
Brookings also found that the average constituent of a Republican House member drove 26% more miles per capita than the average constituent of a Democratic member. Bill Galston, a Brookings senior fellow, told CBS News Minnesota that voters experience repeated “prices that are higher than they used to be.”
The historical pattern has exceptions. POLITICO/E&E News reported that Democrats lost 64 House seats in 2010 after a large increase in gas prices, but lost nine in 2022 despite another sharp rise. The outlet cited the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade as one possible factor in the 2022 result. The Nov. 3 election offers a new set of results, but the historical averages do not isolate the effect of gasoline prices.
