A new S&P Global Institute report links greater reliance on imported oil with steeper GDP losses after oil supply shocks, while warning that electrification may shift energy-security exposure toward concentrated clean-technology supply chains. Published Nov. 12 during COP31, the report examines nine advanced economies and includes case studies of Europe and China.
In S&P’s model, countries with oil-import dependence one standard deviation above the sample mean had an additional 0.25-percentage-point GDP loss two years after an oil shock. The report describes this as an association, not a universal estimate of clean technology’s effect. It also says greater domestic fossil-fuel production, fiscal measures and the post-pandemic recovery helped cushion economic activity in some countries.
A forecast from S&P Global Energy puts the oil-demand reduction from battery-powered and plug-in hybrid light vehicles operating worldwide at 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026, nearly 2% of global demand. The report says drivers may save money in a higher oil-price environment, all else equal, including electricity prices. China exported nearly 2.5 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the first half of 2026, more than twice the year-earlier figure, according to S&P.
Europe’s response after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine illustrates how changing energy sources can reduce one exposure while leaving another. Since 2021, EU non-hydro renewables have added nearly 340 terawatt-hours of generation. Liquefied natural gas imports rose from 86 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 149 billion cubic meters in 2022 as Europe replaced some Russian pipeline gas. S&P expects European clean-technology investment in 2026 to exceed twice its 2021 level.
S&P describes China as dominant across clean-technology supply chains, from mineral extraction and processing to components and technologies. Governments are diversifying mineral sources and building domestic production; some have eased emissions goals to secure resources and preserve jobs. The Associated Press reported in June that charging infrastructure in some developing markets was lagging the growth of Chinese EV imports.
S&P says energy use worldwide is still growing faster than renewable deployment, and fossil-fuel use has not yet fallen globally. The report cites European Commission targets to cut gas imports by more than 70% and crude oil imports by 40% by 2040.
