Two October polls put President Donald Trump’s job approval below 40%, while historian Allan Lichtman told Euronews he fears the president may try to overturn the Nov. 3 midterm outcome.
In its video interview, updated Oct. 29, Euronews quoted Lichtman calling Trump an “aspiring authoritarian.” Lichtman said Americans should be “very much prepared” if Trump attempts to reverse the result “by any means at his disposal.” The interview did not identify a specific plan or mechanism.
Lichtman said Trump could use executive orders “more aggressively” if Republicans lose ground and predicted a favorable midterm for Democrats. Both statements reflect Lichtman’s views and forecast.
An AP-NORC Center poll conducted Oct. 8-12 found that 35% of respondents approved of Trump’s job performance and 64% disapproved. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-19 recorded 31% approval and 66% disapproval.
Lichtman cited average losses of about 40 House seats and six Senate seats for presidents with poor polling, but did not specify the comparison period or approval threshold. An American Presidency Project analysis identifies three midterm cases from 1936 to 2022 in which approval was below 40%: Harry Truman in 1946 and 1950, and George W. Bush in 2006. Those cases cover two presidents and three elections. Their parties lost 56 House and nine Senate seats in 1946, 28 House and 12 Senate seats in 1950, and 30 House and six Senate seats in 2006. Calculated from those losses, the averages were 38 House seats and nine Senate seats.
Across all midterms from 1934 to 2022, the project reports average losses of 27 House seats and three Senate seats for the president’s party. It links seat swings with presidential approval and the number of seats the president’s party must defend, while cautioning that historical patterns may be a less reliable guide to 2026.
The U.S. Postal Service says the Nov. 3 election will decide all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats.
