Hong Kong February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year holidays

Hong Kong will announce February trade data on 26 March. 

Standard Chartered notes its forecasts as follows:

• We forecast export growth at 9.9% y/y, up from 2.8% in January, mainly on last year's low base due to the Lunar New Year falling in January. 
  
  
• China's trade data for the period exhibited similar holiday-induced swings, with exports surging 48.3% y/y in February. 
  
  
• We expect March data to indicate a clearer underlying trend. We expect imports to have risen 10.2% y/y, translating into a trade deficit of HKD 60bn. 
  
  
• While we believe demand from the West is recovering and the worst is likely over for Hong Kong's external sector, any improvement is likely to be gradual at best.