Hong Kong February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year holidays
Hong Kong will announce February trade data on 26 March. Standard Chartered notes its forecasts as follows: We forecast export growth at 9.9% y/y, up from 2.8% in January, mainly on last year's low base due to the Lunar …
Hong Kong will announce February trade data on 26 March.
Standard Chartered notes its forecasts as follows:
We forecast export growth at 9.9% y/y, up from 2.8% in January, mainly on last year's low base due to the Lunar New Year falling in January.
China's trade data for the period exhibited similar holiday-induced swings, with exports surging 48.3% y/y in February.
We expect March data to indicate a clearer underlying trend. We expect imports to have risen 10.2% y/y, translating into a trade deficit of HKD 60bn.
While we believe demand from the West is recovering and the worst is likely over for Hong Kong's external sector, any improvement is likely to be gradual at best.
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