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U.S. Dollar Index Holds Near 102.20 as Fed Hike Odds Rise

CME Group put the chance of a December rate increase at 85.3% on Nov. 10; FXStreet cited a reading near 91% later that day.

Updated 2 min read
Morning commuters pass the Postal Square Building, home to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in Washington, D.C. / TokenPost.ai
Morning commuters pass the Postal Square Building, home to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in Washington, D.C. / TokenPost.ai

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 102.20 during Asian trading Wednesday, FXStreet reported, as October inflation data raised expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate increase in December.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recorded a seasonally adjusted 0.4% monthly increase in the consumer price index in October, compared with 0.6% in September. The measure excluding food and energy rose 0.3% for a second consecutive month. Because a lapse in appropriations prevented the agency from collecting survey data in October 2025, it did not publish 12-month changes for affected indexes.

CME Group said the inflation release was followed by a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields. U.S. equity index futures fell, led by small-cap contracts. Its FedWatch Tool put the probability of a December rate increase at 85.3% in a Nov. 10 market update.

FXStreet cited a higher reading, near 91%, in a report published at 10:47 p.m. ET Tuesday (03:47 UTC Wednesday). Investing.com historical data put the index’s Nov. 10 close at 102.23, up 0.57% from the previous session.

At its Oct. 28 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack dissented, favoring a quarter-point increase.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) says the index compares the dollar with six currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. The euro has the largest weight, at 57.6%. EconoTimes reported the index near 102 earlier this week.

The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8-9. BLS is due to release November consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 10.

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