INSEE French business confidence to remain steady in October

The Bank of France business survey that was completed in late September-early October painted a mixed picture: it improved in the services sector but showed some signs of weakening in the manufacturing sector. The INSEE survey is expected to mirror these developments. The business confidence index is expected to remain at 100, the historical average, for the general economy, although the risks are tilted to the downside. 

Manufacturing confidence is set to decline, though, from 104 to 103. A reading of 100 for the general economy is historically consistent with a GDP growth rate of 0.40-0.45% qoq. The INSEE survey comprises around 20,000 firms (compared to a sample of 400 for PMI surveys) and can be seen as a reliable tool.