India’s cotton market faces tighter supply concerns for 2026–27 after a lower official crop tally and mill forecasts put next-season demand above 36 million bales.
K Selvaraju, secretary general of the Southern India Mills Association (SIMA), told The Economic Times that demand could exceed 36 million 170-kilogram bales and output could fall below 28 million next season. The projection is an industry forecast; government production data cited here covers 2025–26.
The Ministry of Textiles reported provisional 2025–26 production of 29.091 million 170-kilogram bales, compared with 29.724 million in 2024–25. India’s cotton year runs from October to September. The Cotton Association of India (CAI), in an Aug. 11 estimate, put 2025–26 output at 33.9 million 170-kilogram bales, a unit its release calls “pressings.” CAI also estimated consumption at 34.8 million bales, imports at 6.2 million and closing stocks of 9.359 million bales as of Sept. 30, 2026. CAI’s production total is higher than the ministry’s, and the releases do not reconcile the difference.
The Economic Times separately reported 2025–26 imports of 7.1 million 170-kilogram bales, up from 5.74 million the previous season. That estimate is higher than CAI’s 6.2 million-bale estimate for the same crop year.
India’s agreement with the United Kingdom took effect July 15, providing duty-free access for 99% of Indian exports there, including textiles, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said. The agreement with New Zealand took effect Oct. 20 and provides duty-free access for all Indian exports there. The terms expand market access but do not quantify cotton orders. The Economic Times reported that Selvaraju linked his demand outlook partly to free trade agreements.
The government’s temporary exemption from duties on raw-cotton imports is scheduled to end Oct. 31. The Ministry of Finance says the measure aims to lower input costs for textile and apparel manufacturers. Reuters reported Oct. 26, citing unnamed government and industry sources, that an extension through December was expected. The ministry’s notice sets Oct. 31 as the end date, and no official extension was announced. Business Standard reported that some traders argued an extension could hurt farmers.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in an Oct. 8 diagnostic discussion that El Niño was strengthening and likely to persist through January-March 2027. The discussion did not quantify its effect on Indian cotton production. NOAA’s next diagnostic discussion is scheduled for Nov. 12.
