India's FY15 GDP likely to be lower than the government’s projection

India will release FY15 (ended March 2015) GDP data on 29 May. The government's statistical agency projected FY15 GDP growth of 7.4% y/y in early 2015, based on GDP of 7.5% y/y extrapolated for Q4-FY15 (January-March 2015). However, proxy indicators - one of the slowest earnings growth figures in the past two years, stillsluggish bank credit growth and unseasonal rainfall - are likely to push actual Q4 growth below projections. 


A downward revision in the Q4 and full-year GDP prints will not surprise analysts, and this would have implications for Standard Chartered's FY16 GDP forecast. The data will be released according to the recently revised methodology, which has a limited time series of three years for GDP.