While the quality of Indonesia's export data has varied, the data itself provides a good gauge of the trend. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' early-June statement noted the 2015 production target of 425mt, of which 315mt would be exported and 110mt would be sold domestically, notes Standard Chartered. The export volume of 315mt has been downwardly revised by 35mt from the estimate at the beginning of this year, reflecting the government's guidance on weak seaborne demand.
Official statistics indicate that exports were down 16mt to 408mt in 2014. However, given reported growth in production from key producers, exports fell by only 6mt to 418mt, estimates Standard Chartered. Statistics also indicate that only 135mt of coal was exported in the first five months of this year, down by 19% y/y.
"Given that several producers have announced plans to reduce their production targets for the year and many smaller mines have announced closures, Indonesia's coal exports is expected to decline this year. Nonetheless, following the government's acknowledgement of a variation of as much as 70mt from official statistics, we forecast a marginal decline of 9mt to 407mt. Rising pressure to reduce export volumes in an oversupplied market is making it increasingly difficult to estimate how large the discrepancy really is", says Standard Chartered.
