Kalshi traders put Anthropic's chance of an official IPO announcement in 2026 at 75% on Monday, making it the sole company above even odds as the number of U.S. offerings priced this year trailed 2025.
Anthropic was the only one of 23 names still open for trading on Kalshi to exceed 50%, CNBC reported. Under the market's rules, a qualifying announcement can take the form of the Securities and Exchange Commission declaring an S-1 registration effective, an IPO being priced or an exchange assigning a ticker.
Renaissance Capital said the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year was down 33% from 2025. Proceeds nevertheless rose sharply, helped by large offerings including SpaceX's June IPO, CNBC reported. The outlet said AI developers and companies supplying them were seeking public-market capital to finance growth.
Kalshi's Monday readings put OpenAI and Deel at 3% each, Databricks at 1% and Plaid at 10%. CNBC reported that Plaid and Deel had previously reached roughly 50%, while Databricks had exceeded that level. CNBC also reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in September that a 2026 public debut did not make sense amid AI safety concerns.
CNBC reported that Anthropic disclosed $16.8 billion in third-quarter revenue, though its growth from the previous quarter had slowed compared with earlier periods. 22V Research analyst Dauvin Peterson questioned whether Anthropic could maintain the growth investors expected as large language model prices came under pressure.
Peterson wrote that a revised IPO valuation range began at $1.5 trillion, compared with a prior expectation of at least $2 trillion. He said the revision “was viewed as disappointing.” The valuation debate comes amid pressure on AI-linked stocks, including Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave, as EconoTimes previously reported.
CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi involving customer acquisition and a minority investment.
