Market prices put an 86.3% probability on the Federal Reserve raising its target interest rate range to 4%-4.25% at its Dec. 9 meeting, according to US prediction exchange Kalshi.
That would put the range 25 basis points above the current 3.75%-4% band, which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York listed as of Nov. 12.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its live-feed quotes were taken at 16:00:46 UTC on Nov. 14, with contract volume for the December meeting at about 12.9 million.
These are market prices, not a forecast or a survey. Each meeting's market covers five possible decisions: cuts of 50 or 25 basis points, no change, or increases of 25 or 50 basis points.
The distributions across rate bands combine those probabilities from the current range through each meeting. Later meetings therefore show more possible bands than December, because the calculation includes the possible rate changes at earlier meetings.
For December, Kalshi's distribution assigned 9.3% to a 4.25%-4.5% range and 3.4% to keeping the current 3.75%-4% band. It assigned 0.5% each to 3.25%-3.5% and 3.5%-3.75%, completing the five possible outcomes for that meeting.
Kalshi's implied expected upper bound, the probability-weighted average of the possible target range ceilings, was 4.26% for December. That measure combines the possible outcomes into one rate, rather than identifying the band with the largest share of market pricing.
For the Jan. 27, 2027, meeting, Kalshi's distribution put the largest probability, 52.1%, on a 4.25%-4.5% range. The next largest share was 37.2% for 4%-4.25%, followed by 6.4% for 4.5%-4.75% and 3% for the current 3.75%-4% band.
The remaining January probabilities were 0.9% for 3.5%-3.75%, 0.2% for 3.25%-3.5% and 0.1% for 4.75%-5%. The implied expected upper bound was 4.4%, compared with December's 4.26%, while the most likely band was also one step higher.
For March 17, 2027, Kalshi's distribution assigned 39.8% to 4.25%-4.5%, 33.4% to 4.5%-4.75% and 16.5% to 4%-4.25%. The 4.25%-4.5% band retained the largest share, though its probability was lower than in January.
The other March probabilities were 5.5% for 4.75%-5%, 3.3% for the current 3.75%-4% band and 0.9% for 3.5%-3.75%. They were 0.3% for 5%-5.25% and 0.1% for 3.25%-3.5%. The implied expected upper bound was 4.55%.
