Market prices put a 93% probability on the Federal Reserve keeping its interest rate target range at 3.75%-4% at the Oct. 28 meeting, according to US prediction exchange Kalshi.
The most likely range shifts to 4%-4.25% for the Dec. 9 meeting, with a 67.6% probability. That puts the largest share of December pricing one quarter percentage point above the current range.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its live-feed quotes were taken at 16:00:08 UTC on Oct. 25, with contract volume of 15.5 million for the nearest meeting.
These are market prices, not a forecast or a survey. The figures describe the distribution of possible target ranges at each meeting.
The current 3.75%-4% target range was recorded as of Oct. 25 in FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database.
For Oct. 28, the 4%-4.25% range carries a 5.5% probability. The remaining three ranges, 3.25%-3.5%, 3.5%-3.75% and 4.25%-4.5%, each carry a 0.5% probability.
The October distribution therefore places nearly all its weight on the current range, with the next-largest share on a quarter-point increase. Each of the other outcomes accounts for less than 1%.
The implied expected upper bound, the probability-weighted average of the possible target range ceilings, is 4.01% for October. That is one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, above the current ceiling.
For Dec. 9, the current range carries a 21.4% probability, behind the 67.6% attached to 4%-4.25%. The 4.25%-4.5% range has an 8% probability.
The lower December ranges carry smaller shares: 1.8% for 3.5%-3.75% and 0.6% for 3.25%-3.5%. The 4.5%-4.75% range also carries 0.6%.
The implied expected upper bound for December is 4.21%, compared with 4.01% for October. Both figures refer to the ceiling of the target range.
For Jan. 27, 2027, the largest probability is 50.2% for 4%-4.25%, followed by 27% for 4.25%-4.5%. The current range carries 15.3%.
The January distribution assigns 4.6% to 4.5%-4.75%, 2% to 3.5%-3.75% and 0.5% to 3.25%-3.5%. The highest range, 4.75%-5%, carries 0.4%.
January's implied expected upper bound is 4.29%. The later-meeting distributions combine successive meetings' probabilities, starting from the current target range.
Each meeting's market prices five choices: cuts of 50 or 25 basis points, no change, or increases of 25 or 50 basis points.
