European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip R. Lane said AI investment and euro-area firms’ place in global supply chains are supporting activity, even as the technology’s longer-term productivity effects remain uncertain.
Lane delivered the keynote Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Economic Research Symposium on AI and the economy.
The ECB estimated that digital investment represented 3.3% of euro-area gross domestic product by the end of the first half of 2026, compared with 2.3% in 2014. In real terms, the amount was 73% higher than in 2014. For its 2026 estimate, the ECB supplemented annual accounts data with an output measure for digital services. Its estimate for U.S. digital investment was 7.3% of GDP over the same period. Firms surveyed by the ECB said AI would lift their capital-spending plans for 2026 by about 10%.
The ECB’s Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises found that 64% of firms surveyed in the fourth quarter of 2025 used AI experimentally or moderately; 7% reported significant use. Among firms using AI, 62% cited improved business processes and 15% cited lower labor costs. Separately, Eurostat found that 20.0% of EU enterprises with at least 10 employees used AI technologies in 2025, compared with 13.5% in 2024. The surveys ask different questions, so their figures are not directly comparable.
In the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, the share of employed respondents reporting AI use at work rose to 52% in 2026 from 26% in 2024. AI-using workers reported a median time saving of three hours per week, equivalent to about 7.7% of median working time. Around half of workers said better training or a clearer understanding of AI’s usefulness could encourage them to adopt it; about half of firms planned AI training in the next 12 months.
Lane also discussed a simulation that assumed a 30% total factor productivity gain in IT services in every country. Under that scenario, euro-area output would be 3.8% higher by 2030, IT-sector employment 4.4% lower and real wages 4.3% higher. Lane said the outcome depends on the simulation’s assumptions and does not predict AI’s actual effects.
Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed euro-area GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026, after a 0.6% increase in the second quarter. The release covers overall growth and does not isolate AI’s contribution; the estimate may be revised. Eurostat’s next estimate for third-quarter GDP is scheduled for Nov. 13.
