National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen led Kalshi’s market for France’s 2027 presidential election at 53% on Oct. 20, CNBC reported, while a court review left her candidacy unresolved.
CNBC put Le Pen’s price at 39% a month earlier, a rise of 14 percentage points. Cannes Mayor David Lisnard’s price moved from 44.7% on Sept. 26 to 11% on Oct. 20, according to the outlet. His Sept. 26 reading came a day after a campaign rally.
Kalshi’s contract will settle after the French government confirms the election winner. Its prices reflect trading in the contract, not poll results or the share of voters who support a candidate.
School conditions and teacher shortages first drew students into protests in Paris. Demonstrations later broadened to include living costs, health care and other public services. France’s Interior Ministry counted 550,000 demonstrators nationwide on Oct. 17.
Le Pen has criticized President Emmanuel Macron’s government over the unrest and made public order part of her campaign message. In an Oct. 18 post, she described a “profound crisis of trust, of authority.”
CNBC reported that France’s CAC 40 stock index had fallen 2.8% over the preceding month. Agence France Trésor, the government’s debt agency, recorded a 4.93% reading on Oct. 20 for its 10-year bond yield benchmark.
A review of Le Pen’s conviction and sentence adds a legal question to the campaign. In a July 7 judgment, the Paris Court of Appeal convicted Le Pen of misuse of public funds and complicity over European Parliament money. The court barred her from seeking elected office for 45 months, suspending 30 months of the ban. The penalties cannot be enforced while the Court of Cassation reviews them.
The court’s next hearing, on constitutional questions, is set for Dec. 16. France has scheduled the presidential election’s first round for April 18, 2027, and a possible runoff for May 2.
